Storage and demand side management form a better solution

As a senior I have the dubious luxury of spending much of my time worrying about climate change and trying to support climate change action. I worry that government and industry action is happening far too slowly. The solutions are being slow-walked or ignored because of short-term thinking, fear of change and/or unwillingness to acceptance the terrible consequences of not changing.

The burning fossil fuels is the principal cause of the climate change crisis. The UN IPCC has made it clear that to stop the climate crisis the world must urgently transition from the burning of fossil fuels. Canada has committed to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from electrical power generation by 2035.

Publications of authoritative energy industry organizations such as BloombergNEF and Lazard document the huge cost reductions in wind power and solar PV power. Those resources are now the cleanest and most cost-effective forms of power generation.  The annual International Energy Agency Global Energy Outlook report documents the accelerating global transition to these clean yet cheap source of renewable power.

Wind and solar PV are variable energy resources so firming techniques must be used when integrating those resources to ensure a secure reliable grid. The cleanest and most cost-effective way to integrate them into the grid is to use a combination of demand side management, transmission, and storage.

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are proven, cost-effective and emissions-free. A BESS is highly effective at providing voltage stabilization, frequency regulation and reserve capacity. Battery storage can fill the needs of NB Power in addition to being healthier, more economically prudent, and zero-emission.

Ontario expects to have a total of 2,916 MW installed by 2030 (https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1004567/ontario-completes-largest-battery-storage-procurement-in-canada-to-meet-growing-electricity-demand). It seems inconceivable that New Brunswick can’t install 400MW or more in a couple of years.

If battery storage was considered then did the analysis include the fact that the cost of a BESS has dropped by over 50% since 2022 (https://www.energy-storage.news/behind-the-numbers-bnef-finds-40-year-on-year-drop-in-bess-costs/)?

Drawing upon demand-side management for capacity management.

The RIGS impact assessment states that demand-side management could only provide up to 100MW of capacity.

A battery electric vehicle (BEV) charges at about 10 kW. There were 3,500 BEVs in New Brunswick as of 2025 Q1. The number of BEVs in NB grew by 1,400 in 2024.  Even if future annual BEV growth is only half that amount, there will be 6,000 BEVs in New Brunswick by the end of 2028. That is 60MW of flexible demand and 60MW of low-cost storage from BEVs alone. This opportunity could be extended further by electrifying some of the 1,200 New Brunswick school busses which, with their powerful charging ability, represent at least an additional 24MW of capacity. BEVs represent huge and growing amount of flexible demand and supply.  

Just the use of BEVs alone could provide up to 60+60+24+24 = 168MW of capacity.

Another example of flexible demand is the hundreds of thousands of electric hot water heaters in the province which could represent more than 300MW of flexible demand if properly engaged.

The potential for demand-side management described in the RIGS impact assessment appears to be significantly understated.

The better solution for RIGS

It makes far more sense to implement a strategy based on BESS deployment supplemented with demand side management rather than gas-fired power generation.  The proposed Centre Village plant would rely on a gas supply which has an unpredictable price and comes from an increasingly undependable trading partner. As the supply of cheap wind power grows the cost of charging a BESS will only decrease due to the lower cost of energy and due to the ability to capture otherwise curtailed wind power.

Using a BESS would avoid GHG emissions of between 100,000 to 900,000 tonnes which a Central Village gas-fired generator would produce annually.

Battery storage and demand side management can fill the needs expressed by NB Power and are healthier, more economically prudent, and can help meet Canada’s climate obligations.

OTHER NOTES

In fact, those are two of their major benefits. This is not new technology. In 2017 a 100MW/129MWh BESS was installed in Australia to provide frequency control, voltage regulation, and energy arbitrage.

BESS systems have been globally deployed in huge amounts since 2017. As of the end of 2024 there were 150,000 MW / 363,000 MWh of installations, 13,000 MW in California alone. BloombergNEF expects another 94,000 MW to be installed in 2025. Battery grid storage is proven, cost effective and emissions free. Is the resistance to installing storage assets due to a lack of skills and experience with storage at NB Power? If so, trained and recruitment needs to happen promptly or New Brunswick risk being economically left behind.

There are only a few installations in Canada but they are growing quickly. The 250MW Oneida Energy Storage project (https://www.northlandpower.com/en/news/press-release/northland-power-announces-commercial-operations-at-oneida-energy-storage-project-canadas-largest-bat.aspx) in Haldimand County, Ontario started operation earlier this year.  It is currently the largest BESS in Canada but Ontario will have a total of 2,916 MW of BESS systems installed by 2030. Even Saint John Energy has a 5MW BESS installed.

Use of gas-fired vs BESS: https://ieefa.org/resources/how-much-gas-does-future-grid-need

2030 NB Power IRP:

• Page 53, Figure 10.2 Levelized Cost of Energy ($2022)
  • Lithium-ion Battery (4-hour): $193/MWh
  • Lithium-ion Battery (12-hour): $194/MWh
  • Combustion Turbine – Dual Fuel: $418/MWh
• Page 54, Figure 10.3 Levelized Cost of Capacity ($2022)
  • Lithium-ion Battery (4-hour): $20/kW-month
  • Lithium-ion Battery (12-hour): $38/kW-month
  • Combustion Turbine – Dual Fuel: $9/kW-month

In 2022 BES systems provide much cheaper energy than a combustion turbine.  BESS prices dropped by 50% from 2022 prices to about US$165/kWh in 2024 according to BloombergNEF (https://www.energy-storage.news/behind-the-numbers-bnef-finds-40-year-on-year-drop-in-bess-costs/).  Those prices are expected to fall again in 2025 after an auction in December 2024 in which Power Construction Corporation of China received bids on its 16GWh BESS tender averaging US$66/kWh. 

It makes far more sense to implement a strategy based on BESS deployment rather than gas which produces GHG emissions as well as unpredictably fluctuate in price. Unlike a gas-fired generator, the cost of charging a BESS will drop as more wind farms are deployed both due to the lower cost of energy and due to the ability to use otherwise curtailed wind power.

Using a BESS would avoid GHG emissions of between 100,000 to 900,000 tonnes which the gas-fire generator would produce annually

Battery storage is healthier, more economically prudent, and better for meeting Canada’s climate obligations than a gas combustion turbine power plant.

Risk of loss of gas supply or wild swing in price due to US trade uncertainty.  BESS does not have this risk.

Building wind farms will quickly ensure batteries get charged. That's just part of integrating renewables. A BESS will also resolve the current situation where NB Power complains about having to accept the power from existing wind farms and run-of-the-river hydroelectric dams when the grid does not need it. Also, the intertie with Quebec is often not fully used so it could potentially also be used to charge the batteries when there is not enough wind.